CONFERENCEUsing an integrated analysis and forecasting tool for regional development planning in Latvia
Ilgvars Francis
DOI: 10.22364/fg.15.32
Keywords: analytical, foresight, tool, regional, development
Abstract
In Latvia, a number of studies have been recently conducted on the spatial location of various social and economic phenomena and their mutual interaction; however, these studies are rarely put in a broader analytical or modelling framework, lacking integration and a dynamic perspective. This insufficiency can be avoided by developing new partnerships among universities or other research institutions, regional and local planning firms and the State Regional Development Agency of Latvia, which operates the only regional data system in Latvia – the “Regional Development Indicators Module” or RAIM. The rationale for the proposed cooperation is the development of an interactive analytical tool that would provide the users with analytical information and development forecasts or scenarios in the field of regional and local planning. The tool will offer scientifically sound data and performance indicators on spatial development processes in Latvia, as well as allow the users either to make use of the built-in analytical models or let them alter the basic parameters of the models and elaborate their own scenarios or forecast development trends. Should the stakeholders’ knowledge and expertise be consolidated, it would become possible to develop an unprecedented interactive regional development analysis and forecasting tool. The implementation of the proposal focuses on two major components or directions – 1) technical solutions that include the necessary programming, data computing or development of algorithms / formulae and 2) scientific or research solutions that would contain scientific methodology and certain research studies or development forecasts in regional and local development planning. Initially identified areas for spatial analysis and forecasting include population change by location, population mobility, location of workplaces and public services, as well as other geographical patterns of social or economic characteristics. The integration of these research studies would make possible the development of a framework for a conceptually new analytical tool that is based upon a systemic approach and scientific methodology in regional and local development planning.