Flowering of the bird cherry in Latvia before and after 100 years

The Flowering of Bird Cherry (Padus racemosa) in Latvia: 100 Years Ago and Today

Gunta Kalvane

University of Latvia, Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences

Andis Kalvans

University of Latvia, Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences

DOI: 10.22364/fg.16.2

Keywords: Padus racemosa, phenology, phenological modelling, degree days model, Latvia

Abstract

Phenological data are often used in climate change research, both to reconstruct the climate of the past and assess the potential impact of future climate. The long-term data flowering data of the bird cherry Padus racemosa in Latvia is analysed and possible trends future trends are modelled using the degree day (active temperature sum) and the ENSEMBLES climate data set. During the last 50 years the average dates of the bird cherry flowering have shifted by a week – they occur earlier. Negative flowering trends are expected for future as well: model data shows that by the end of the 21th century in Latvia the bird cherry flowering will take place by the end of April and not in middle of May as at present day.